Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Predators, while the market favors Golden Knights (59%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Predators vs. Golden Knights

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (53%) · Predators at 42¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 14

Predators42¢Golden Knights58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 53%

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$351.71

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 41.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Predators42%

Golden Knights59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights8 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares17,977

Combined PnL-$277

Predators9 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares29,267

Combined PnL+$628.71

Golden Knights — 47%Predators — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Golden Knights) and the top 1000 (16 on Predators) disagree here.

whaleGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpGolden Knights 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Predators 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Golden Knightsavg 62¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$161.6	— 11-4 (15)
RO royalestakeCTR	Predatorsavg 38¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$304.36	7% 15-191 (206)
RO roldy	Golden Knightsavg 61¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$60	39% 11-17 (28)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Predatorsavg 39¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$153.84	5% 9-172 (181)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Predatorsavg 39.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$80.57	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
VE VenusianCTR	Predatorsavg 39.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$66.06	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Golden Knightsavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0	42% 33-45 (78)
VeryLucky888	Golden Knightsavg 61¢	$1.2K	$838.33	-$47.17	53% 1030-921 (1951)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Predatorsavg 41¢	$665.26	$673.38	+$8.11	43% 68-91 (159)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Predatorsavg 39¢	$266.85	$280.53	+$13.68	35% 749-1385 (2134)
0xheavy888	Golden Knightsavg 61¢	$122	$120	-$2	53% 388-339 (727)
WE westing.v1	Golden Knightsavg 62¢	$112.17	$108.55	-$3.62	22% 24-84 (108)
nigiri99<$100	Golden Knightsavg 62¢	$81.22	$78.6	-$2.62	52% 471-427 (898)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Predatorsavg 39¢	$30.03	$31.57	+$1.54	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Predatorsavg 41¢	$24.19	$24.49	+$0.29	55% 248-199 (447)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Golden Knightsavg 60¢	$15	$15	+$0	39% 1080-1659 (2739)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Predatorsavg 40¢	$10.03	$10.28	+$0.25	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Golden Knights

Invested

$5,009.6

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$161.6

Record

—

11-4 (15)

royalestakeCTR

Predators

Invested

$3,855.18

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$304.36

Record

15-191 (206)

roldy

Golden Knights

Invested

$3,660

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$60

Record

39%

11-17 (28)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Predators

Invested

$2,999.88

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$153.84

Record

9-172 (181)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Predators

Invested

$1,783.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$80.57

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

VenusianCTR

Predators

Invested

$1,744.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$66.06

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x0A77exmm

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,155.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

33-45 (78)

VeryLucky888

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,220

Value

$838.33

PnL

-$47.17

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Predators

Invested

$665.26

Value

$673.38

PnL

+$8.11

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

LightParadoxCTR

Predators

Invested

$266.85

Value

$280.53

PnL

+$13.68

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

0xheavy888

Golden Knights

Invested

$122

Value

$120

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

westing.v1

Golden Knights

Invested

$112.17

Value

$108.55

PnL

-$3.62

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

nigiri99<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$81.22

Value

$78.6

PnL

-$2.62

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$30.03

Value

$31.57

PnL

+$1.54

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$24.19

Value

$24.49

PnL

+$0.29

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1080-1659 (2739)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Golden Knights) and the top 1000 (16 on Predators) disagree here.

whaleGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpGolden Knights 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrGolden Knights 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Predators 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.