Does following the smart money pay?
What buying the smart money consensus would have returned, after a 1¢ spread and Polymarket's taker fee: first in our October 2026 backtest, then live, signal by signal, since the ledger started. Past results, not advice.
The short answer
Not on average, and nothing narrower is proven. Buying the consensus side of every market and holding to resolution lost about 4.8 % a trade after costs in the backtest. The consensus does know something, about one point more than the price, but the spread and the fee take two to three. A few narrow slices did better; none survived the correction for how many variations were tried. The live ledger below is the test that cannot be fitted after the fact.
Backtest (October 2026)
A point-in-time replay of the site's own rules: a trade enters the consensus side when a market reaches 5+ tracked holders, at the price of that moment plus a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's 2026 taker fee, $1 a trade, held to resolution. Two windows: A, March 10 – April 28 2026 with the hand-picked wallets (clean data), and B, October 2 – 22 2026 with every tracked wallet.
Window B is provisional: part of October's fill times were stamped early (a block-time error, being repaired), so some trades saw fills before they happened. The windows also disagree with each other: across 752 strategies tested in both, their rankings were negatively correlated.
The broad rule
| 5+ holders, 60 %+ on the side, price 0.05–0.95, held | Trades | Return a trade | 95 % CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy the consensus side (1¢ + taker fee) | 10,051 | −4.8 % | −6.5 to −3.1 % |
| Same, without the taker fee | 10,051 | −3.2 % | −4.9 to −1.4 % |
| Same, at a 2¢ half-spread | 10,051 | −6.4 % | −8.0 to −4.8 % |
| Buy the other side instead | 10,056 | −16.5 % | −19.3 to −13.7 % |
The consensus side won 64.7 % of the time at an average price of 0.638: about one point better than its price, before costs.
By price
| Price of the side | Trades | Return a trade | 95 % CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 – 0.30 (longshots) | 1,625 | −29.5 % | not reported |
| 0.30 – 0.50 | 2,793 | −6.5 % | not reported |
| 0.50 – 0.70 | 3,834 | −3.2 % | not reported |
| 0.70 – 0.90 (favourites) | 4,327 | +0.4 % | −0.9 to +1.7 % |
| 0.90 – 0.99 | 4,210 | −0.2 % | not reported |
Slices that looked better (picked after seeing the tables)
| Rule | Trades | Return a trade | 95 % CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 %+ holders, $50k+ staked on the side, price 0.50–0.95 | 172 | +10.3 % | +2.1 to +18.3 % |
| 80 %+ holders, side worth $100k+ | 91 | +13.2 % | +2.0 to +24.4 % |
| Quality net +3 or more when the consensus forms | 358 | +7.2 % | +0.9 to +13.6 % |
| Tennis, ATP/WTA tour, 70 %+ holders (window A) | 164 | +16.6 % | not reported |
| Tennis, ATP/WTA tour, 70 %+ holders (window B) | 120 | +19.0 % | not reported |
These were chosen from more than 1,300 tested rules, so even the intervals that exclude zero are optimistic. The quality-net result depends on a few events: the five best gave 66–75 % of its profit. The tennis rule was selected in one window and confirmed in the other, but still fails the multiple-testing correction.
What lost in both windows
| Category (5+ holders, 60 %+, $1k+ on the side) | Window A | Window B |
|---|---|---|
| Basketball | −12.0 % (CI −22 to −2 %) | −9.2 % |
| Culture | −7.1 % (CI −15 to −0.1 %) | −15.4 % (CI −35 to −3 %) |
Costs and exits
- A cent of half-spread costs about 2 points a trade; the 2026 taker fee about 1.4–1.8 % of the stake.
- Holding to resolution was best or tied for every rule. Taking profit at 0.95 cost 0.5–1.8 points a trade, switching sides on a flip 1.5–8.4.
Sources: the October 22 2026 backtest reports (core, skill, categories and realism). Nothing here is significant after correcting for the number of rules tested.
Live ledger
Every signal since the ledger started, frozen when the consensus formed and settled when Polymarket resolved the market. The figures say what following the consensus at formation would have returned, after a 1¢ spread and Polymarket's taker fee. Past results, not advice.
Recording since 2026-10-25 06:50 UTC. 318 signals so far: 94 settled and 224 still open. Figures updated 2026-10-25 07:13 UTC.
By price at formation
| Price band | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.05 | 1 | 0 · 1 · 0 | 0.0 % | 1.9 % | 0.01 | −100.0 % too few (under 20) |
| 0.05 – 0.30 (longshots) | 2 | 1 · 1 · 0 | 50.0 % | 18.3 % | 0.17 | +78.7 % too few (under 20) |
| 0.30 – 0.50 | 40 | 26 · 14 · 0 | 65.0 % 49.5 % to 77.9 % | 51.0 % | 0.48 | +29.7 % −0.7 % to +60.1 % |
| 0.50 – 0.70 | 33 | 16 · 17 · 0 | 48.5 % 32.5 % to 64.8 % | 55.4 % | 0.53 | −13.4 % −44.6 % to +17.8 % |
| 0.70 – 0.95 (favourites) | 17 | 13 · 4 · 0 | 76.5 % | 83.8 % | 0.82 | −9.5 % too few (under 20) |
| Over 0.95 | 1 | 1 · 0 · 0 | 100.0 % | 99.9 % | 0.99 | +0.1 % too few (under 20) |
By topic (the 10 with most settled signals)
| Topic | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 89 | 55 · 34 · 0 | 61.8 % 51.4 % to 71.2 % | 58.1 % | 0.56 | +7.0 % −11.7 % to +25.6 % |
| College Football | 5 | 2 · 3 · 0 | 40.0 % | 51.7 % | 0.50 | +4.7 % too few (under 20) |
By quality net at formation
Quality net = holders with a strong record (60 %+ wins over 20+ settled markets, $100+ in the market) on the side, minus those against it.
| Quality net | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net 0 or less | 86 | 51 · 35 · 0 | 59.3 % 48.7 % to 69.1 % | 57.2 % | 0.55 | +5.5 % −14.6 % to +25.5 % |
| Net +1 to +2 | 8 | 6 · 2 · 0 | 75.0 % | 64.3 % | 0.62 | +21.6 % too few (under 20) |
| Net +3 or more | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| No quality data | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
By share of holders on the side
| Head count | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 60 % of holders | 29 | 15 · 14 · 0 | 51.7 % 34.4 % to 68.6 % | 59.4 % | 0.57 | −9.4 % −46.6 % to +27.8 % |
| 60 – 79 % | 34 | 21 · 13 · 0 | 61.8 % 45.0 % to 76.1 % | 54.9 % | 0.52 | +13.0 % −18.4 % to +44.5 % |
| 80 % or more | 31 | 21 · 10 · 0 | 67.7 % 50.1 % to 81.4 % | 59.4 % | 0.57 | +15.3 % −14.8 % to +45.3 % |
| Unknown | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Formed or flipped, in play or not
| Kind | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus formed | 68 | 36 · 32 · 0 | 52.9 % 41.2 % to 64.3 % | 54.7 % | 0.52 | −1.3 % −24.4 % to +21.9 % |
| Consensus flipped to this side | 26 | 21 · 5 · 0 | 80.8 % 62.1 % to 91.5 % | 65.8 % | 0.64 | +28.0 % −2.5 % to +58.5 % |
| Not in play when it formed | 49 | 31 · 18 · 0 | 63.3 % 49.3 % to 75.3 % | 60.6 % | 0.58 | +12.1 % −15.1 % to +39.3 % |
| Match in play when it formed | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unknown | 45 | 26 · 19 · 0 | 57.8 % 43.3 % to 71.0 % | 54.7 % | 0.52 | +1.1 % −25.1 % to +27.4 % |
By how the signal was seen
| Recorder | Settled | Won · lost · 50-50 | Hit rate | Break-even | Avg price | Return a trade, after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seen by the hourly recount | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seen live | 94 | 57 · 37 · 0 | 60.6 % 50.5 % to 69.9 % | 57.8 % | 0.55 | +6.8 % −12.0 % to +25.7 % |
Newest settled signals
- XRP Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Solana Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETUp at 0.87 · flipped 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +13 %
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETUp at 0.91 · flipped 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +9 %
- Solana Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETUp at 0.99 · flipped 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +0 %
- XRP Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +91 %
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETUp at 0.82 · flipped 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +18 %
- Solana Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +91 %
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoLost −100 %
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.85 · flipped 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +15 %
- Solana Up or Down - October 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +91 %
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETDown at 0.49 · formed 2026-10-25 · CryptoWon +91 %
Newest open signals
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under at 0.55 · formed 2026-10-25 · Esportsopen
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over at 0.77 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Solana Up or Down - October 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ETUp at 0.51 · formed 2026-10-25 · Cryptoopen
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)FC Tōkyō at 0.25 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?Yes at 0.53 · formed 2026-10-25 · Weatheropen
- Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ETUp at 0.51 · formed 2026-10-25 · Cryptoopen
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ETUp at 0.51 · formed 2026-10-25 · Cryptoopen
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 3.5Under at 0.51 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder at 0.53 · flipped 2026-10-25 · NBAopen
- Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-25?No at 0.69 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 25?Yes at 1.00 · formed 2026-10-25 · Cryptoopen
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Under at 0.43 · flipped 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under at 0.71 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over at 0.52 · formed 2026-10-25 · Socceropen
- Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?Yes at 0.01 · formed 2026-10-25 · Esportsopen
How a signal is recorded
- One signal per market and side. A signal is opened the first time a market on the consensus list (5+ tracked holders, still open, before its end date) has its consensus on a side, with the price, holders, money and quality of that moment frozen. If the consensus flips, the new side gets a signal of its own and the old one stays: a follower holds to resolution (holding beat every exit in the backtest). A flip back opens nothing.
- When. Most signals are recorded from the live change log within seconds of the consensus forming, at the price shown then. The rest are recorded at the hourly recount of every market, up to about an hour later, at the price of that moment.
- Costs. The entry is the quoted price plus a 1¢ half-spread, plus Polymarket's taker fee for the market's category at that price (fee schedule). A share pays $1 if the side wins, nothing if it loses, $0.50 if Polymarket resolves the market 50-50. A 50-50 counts in the return, never as a win or a loss.
- Settlement. Only Polymarket's own result counts, never a price. A result Polymarket changes within three days is corrected here.
- Intervals. 95 % intervals: Wilson for hit rates, a normal approximation for mean returns; none under 20 settled signals. Several markets of one event move together, so the true uncertainty is larger than these intervals.
- Left out. 1,368 markets already had a consensus when the ledger started; they were not seen forming and are not in these figures.
For history before the ledger started, the market research page replays the site's rule over the exported fills, hour by hour (reconstructed, kept apart from the live ledger): how similar signals turned out by topic, price, money and quality, and what prices did after a consensus formed, flipped or lost its holders.
Test it yourself
The research lab replays your own rule (who to follow, topic, price, money, quality, timing, exit) over the same history, with the same costs and checks as the backtest; every run is public in the library. The signal explorer tests eight more ideas, pre-registered before looking at the results: nothing passed. The copy-trader research shows what copying each tracked trader would have returned after costs, at their entry and an hour later, and whether their unusually large bets did better.
The other figures on this site
The accuracy and ROI figures on Analytics and the homepage describe the smart money's own result at resolution: which side the wallets still holding at the end were on, and what their own entries returned. That is not what a follower earns. It leaves out everyone who sold before the end, holders who redeemed their winning shares as soon as a market settled can drop out of the count, it uses the holders' own entry prices rather than the price when you could have followed, and it includes no spread or fee. This page is the one that measures following.
How the consensus is counted is on How it works.