Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 51.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 51¢ · $764 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$764.3
$10.2
49.3¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Underavg 49.1¢ | $265.85 | $270.85 | +$5 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 49¢ | $196 | $200 | +$4 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
LI LightParadox | Underavg 50¢ | $170.15 | $170.15 | +$0 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 | 49% 615-643 (1258) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 | 48% 269-290 (559) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $22.5 | $22.5 | +$0 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.61 | $9.8 | +$0.2 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
Invested
$265.85
Value
$270.85
PnL
+$5
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
nigiri99Invested
$196
Value
$200
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$170.15
Value
$170.15
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
Invested
$49
Value
$50
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
615-643 (1258)
Invested
$41
Value
$41
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
269-290 (559)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.61
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.