Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Trail Blazers (52%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (33%) · Kings at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Trail Blazers52¢Kings48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$0.6

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 48.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers52%

Kings49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings3 traders

Total Value$909.4

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL+$13.62

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$808.02

Total Shares1,566

Combined PnL-$13.02

Kings — 33%Trail Blazers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKings 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$765.97	$773.94	+$7.98	34% 43-83 (126)
nigiri99	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$655.2	$648.9	-$6.3	52% 471-427 (898)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kingsavg 46¢	$126.96	$132.48	+$5.52	36% 761-1361 (2122)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$135.54	$130.52	-$5.02	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$13.5	$13	-$0.5	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.4	-$0.8	53% 388-339 (727)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Kingsavg 46¢	$2.85	$2.97	+$0.12	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.6	-$0.2	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.6	-$0.2	40% 584-893 (1477)

nehcnehcCTR

Kings

Invested

$765.97

Value

$773.94

PnL

+$7.98

Record

34%

43-83 (126)

nigiri99

Trail Blazers

Invested

$655.2

Value

$648.9

PnL

-$6.3

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

MadridTimeCTR

Kings

Invested

$126.96

Value

$132.48

PnL

+$5.52

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$135.54

Value

$130.52

PnL

-$5.02

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

suntoriCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKings 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.