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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ETHhedge | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 54% (448–384, n=832) | 55% (393–322, n=715) | 58% (11–8, n=19) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $332K | $426K | $386K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #879 | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #107 | was PM monthly #70 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 63% (162 of 258 open) | 54% (85 of 156 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 100% of 224 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 71% of 604 at avg 54¢, ROI +7% | 92% of 12 at avg 46¢, ROI +49% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 1% (won 100% of 3) | 13% (won 40% of 81) | 8% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 31% (won 100% of 70) | 24% (won 62% of 144) | 58% (won 100% of 7) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 60% (won 100% of 135) | 43% (won 74% of 261) | 33% (won 100% of 4) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 7% (won 100% of 16) | 20% (won 98% of 118) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
43 on the same side, 32 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ETHhedge | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $19K | Over $12K | — |
| Pistons vs. Heat opposite sides · consensus Heat | — | Pistons $2.7K | Heat $15K | — |
| Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 53.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $7.3K | Over $9.6K | — |
| Spread: Alabama (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus Vanderbilt | — | Vanderbilt $4.7K | Alabama $4.2K | — |
| UAB vs. Temple: O/U 45.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $3.9K | Under $4.2K | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Arkansas | — | South Carolina $6.6K | Arkansas $733 | — |
| Spread: Miami (FL) (-13.5) opposite sides · consensus Miami (FL) | — | Miami (FL) $5.8K | Duke $439 | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $5.3K | Over $688 | — |
| Duke vs. Miami (FL): O/U 57.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $5.8K | Over $103 | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans opposite sides · consensus Nuggets | — | Nuggets $4.7K | Pelicans $77 | — |
| Spread: James Madison (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus UConn | — | UConn $2.8K | James Madison $1.2K | — |
| Washington vs. Michigan State opposite sides · consensus Washington | — | Washington $3.1K | Michigan State $596 | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | — | Stanford $866 | Virginia Tech $2.8K | — |
| Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $2.5K | Under $309 | — |
| Syracuse vs. NC State: O/U 55.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $2.6K | Over $174 | — |
| Spread: Alabama (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Vanderbilt | — | Alabama $1.7K | Vanderbilt $951 | — |
| East Carolina vs. Charlotte: O/U 45.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $2.5K | Under $144 | — |
| Spread: Ohio State (-13.5) opposite sides · consensus Northwestern | — | Ohio State $396 | Northwestern $2.2K | — |
| Spread: Indiana (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus Indiana | — | Indiana $2.5K | USC $2 | — |
| Portland State Vikings vs. San Francisco Dons opposite sides · consensus San Francisco Dons | — | San Francisco Dons $1.1K | Portland State Vikings $1.0K | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | — | Virginia Tech $1.5K | Stanford $51 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Pistons | — | Pistons $250 | Heat $790 | — |
| Alabama vs. Vanderbilt opposite sides · consensus Alabama | — | Alabama $64 | Vanderbilt $857 | — |
| Spread: Auburn (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Mississippi State | — | Mississippi State $383 | Auburn $377 | — |
| Brown Bears vs. Siena Saints opposite sides · consensus Siena Saints | — | Siena Saints $526 | Brown Bears $216 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $572 | Under $142 | — |
| Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Under $667 | Over $34 | — |
| Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 55.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Under $382 | Over $232 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | — | Pistons $171 | Heat $344 | — |
| Duke vs. Miami (FL) opposite sides · consensus Miami (FL) | — | Miami (FL) $50 | Duke $337 | — |
| Rice Owls vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks opposite sides · consensus Rice Owls | — | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks $12 | Rice Owls $270 | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) same side · consensus Nets | — | Nets $11K | Nets $21K | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies same side · consensus Grizzlies | — | Nets $5.4K | Nets $25K | — |
| Spread: Ohio State (-14.5) same side · consensus Ohio State | — | Northwestern $28K | Northwestern $946 | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) same side · consensus Nets | — | Nets $870 | Nets $16K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $12K | Over $1.5K | — |
| UAB vs. Temple: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $175 | Over $13K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) same side · consensus Grizzlies | — | Nets $3.7K | Nets $8.6K | — |
| Nebraska vs. Rutgers: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Under $6.6K | Under $4.7K | — |
| Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston: O/U 45.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $1.1K | Under $10K | — |
| Kraken vs. Hurricanes same side · consensus Hurricanes | — | Kraken $4.8K | Kraken $6.2K | — |
| Wisconsin vs. Maryland: O/U 41.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $7.9K | Under $2.5K | — |
| Spread: Yale (-3.5) same side · consensus Yale | — | Princeton $364 | Princeton $9.5K | — |
| Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 73.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Over $9.3K | Over $536 | — |
| Tennessee vs. Texas A&M same side · consensus Tennessee | — | Texas A&M $6.2K | Texas A&M $1.1K | — |
| Spread: Indiana (-7.5) same side · consensus Indiana | — | Indiana $6.3K | Indiana $886 | — |
| Kansas vs. West Virginia same side · consensus West Virginia | — | Kansas $6.5K | Kansas $649 | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $4.7K | Under $1.8K | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) same side · consensus Heat | — | Heat $3.2K | Heat $3.2K | — |