East Carolina vs. Charlotte: O/U 45.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$5.4K
-$42.08
48.9¢ → 69.5¢
+42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Underavg 49¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$25.91 | 49% 269-283 (552) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$24.53 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 50¢ | $145 | $143.55 | -$1.45 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $79.12 | $79.98 | +$0.86 | 55% 1630-1336 (2966) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR | Overavg 53.8¢ | $105.36 | $60.76 | -$44.6 | 54% 286-244 (530) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $55.44 | $57.17 | +$1.73 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
Invested
$2,538.99
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.91
Record
49%
269-283 (552)
Invested
$2,502
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$24.53
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99Invested
$145
Value
$143.55
PnL
-$1.45
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$79.12
Value
$79.98
PnL
+$0.86
Record
55%
1630-1336 (2966)
Invested
$105.36
Value
$60.76
PnL
-$44.6
Record
54%
286-244 (530)
Invested
$55.44
Value
$57.17
PnL
+$1.73
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.