Spread: Virginia Tech (-16.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Tech (31%) · Virginia Tech at 53¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Virginia Tech53¢Stanford47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Virginia Tech

Consensus Traders

Virginia Tech 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$99.67

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVirginia Tech at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Tech

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Tech53%

Stanford48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia Tech4 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,281

Combined PnL+$138.27

Stanford9 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,241

Combined PnL-$38.6

Virginia Tech — 31%Stanford — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStanford 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedStanford 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Stanford 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Virginia Techavg 52.4¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$8.03	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
38 38791873984189CTR	Stanfordavg 49.4¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$50.55	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FO forecastication4CTR	Stanfordavg 48¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$19.86	33% 168-335 (503)
MA MadridTime	Virginia Techavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$77.93	37% 970-1635 (2605)
HO HomeRunHazard	Virginia Techavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$42.93	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Stanfordavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$970	-$40	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
GA GaditimaCTR	Stanfordavg 47¢	$940	$970	+$30	48% 274-292 (566)
HI hi774cCTR	Stanfordavg 48¢	$485.71	$490.77	+$5.06	22% 179-618 (797)
OD Oddstorm	Virginia Techavg 50¢	$312.5	$321.88	+$9.38	32% 99-207 (306)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Stanfordavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Virginia Techavg 50¢	$200	$196	-$4	69% 132-60 (192)
└ Virginia Tech leg	Virginia Techavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0
└ Stanford leg	Stanfordavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Stanfordavg 51¢	$94.86	$90.21	-$4.65	48% 286-306 (592)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Stanfordavg 48¢	$53.28	$52.72	-$0.56	51% 568-535 (1103)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Stanfordavg 51¢	$5.14	$4.89	-$0.25	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Virginia Tech

Invested

$4,547.34

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$8.03

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

38791873984189CTR

Stanford

Invested

$2,666.16

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$50.55

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

forecastication4CTR

Stanford

Invested

$1,933.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$19.86

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

MadridTime

Virginia Tech

Invested

$1,527.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$77.93

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

HomeRunHazard

Virginia Tech

Invested

$1,431

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$42.93

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Stanford

Invested

$1,010

Value

$970

PnL

-$40

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

GaditimaCTR

Stanford

Invested

$940

Value

$970

PnL

+$30

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

hi774cCTR

Stanford

Invested

$485.71

Value

$490.77

PnL

+$5.06

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

Oddstorm

Virginia Tech

Invested

$312.5

Value

$321.88

PnL

+$9.38

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

6512395314597884CTR

Stanford

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Virginia Tech

Invested

$200

Value

$196

PnL

-$4

Record

69%

132-60 (192)

Both legs:

Virginia Tech$10050¢+$0

Stanford$10050¢-$4

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Stanford

Invested

$94.86

Value

$90.21

PnL

-$4.65

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Stanford

Invested

$53.28

Value

$52.72

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Stanford

Invested

$5.14

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralVirginia Tech at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Virginia Tech

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStanford 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedStanford 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Stanford 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.