Kraken vs. Hurricanes

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (75%) · Hurricanes at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Kraken25¢Hurricanes75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 75%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$10.33

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kraken25%

Hurricanes76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL+$13.68

Kraken2 traders

Total Value$133.46

Total Shares542

Combined PnL-$3.35

Hurricanes — 75%Kraken — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHurricanes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococo	Hurricanesavg 75¢	$395.63	$398.27	+$2.64	22% 11-38 (49)
PU purplegatto	Hurricanesavg 75¢	$386.4	$388.98	+$2.58	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
nigiri99CTR	Krakenavg 25¢	$103.5	$101.43	-$2.07	53% 472-427 (899)
PA Pan9X	Hurricanesavg 73.4¢	$162	$91.06	+$4.06	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459<$100	Hurricanesavg 73¢	$77.17	$79.29	+$2.11	— 11-4 (15)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Hurricanesavg 73¢	$73	$75	+$2	33% 143-285 (428)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Krakenavg 26¢	$33.31	$32.03	-$1.28	22% 24-84 (108)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hurricanesavg 73.7¢	$16.66	$16.96	+$0.3	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

cocococococo

Hurricanes

Invested

$395.63

Value

$398.27

PnL

+$2.64

Record

22%

11-38 (49)

purplegatto

Hurricanes

Invested

$386.4

Value

$388.98

PnL

+$2.58

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

nigiri99CTR

Kraken

Invested

$103.5

Value

$101.43

PnL

-$2.07

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

Pan9X

Hurricanes

Invested

$162

Value

$91.06

PnL

+$4.06

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$77.17

Value

$79.29

PnL

+$2.11

Record

—

11-4 (15)

BoomLaLa<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$73

Value

$75

PnL

+$2

Record

33%

143-285 (428)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$33.31

Value

$32.03

PnL

-$1.28

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

ghorrock<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$16.66

Value

$16.96

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHurricanes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 88% · 8

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.