Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 51.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$12.94

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,722

Combined PnL-$34.74

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,984

Combined PnL+$47.68

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 54¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$32.34	59% 931-653 (1584)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$20.98	49% 635-674 (1309)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$15.72	36% 948-1669 (2617)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.6K	$584.86	+$6.23	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 45¢	$125.24	$129.41	+$4.17	37% 353-603 (956)
AM AmericaFirst1	Overavg 55¢	$122.62	$119.28	-$3.34	47% 99-111 (210)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$52.51	$53.08	+$0.57	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 48¢	$15.57	$16.59	+$1.02	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 54¢	$7.56	$7.49	-$0.07	54% 286-244 (530)

primm

Over

Invested

$3,492.92

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$32.34

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$1,930

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.98

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,446.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.72

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$1,579.62

Value

$584.86

PnL

+$6.23

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$125.24

Value

$129.41

PnL

+$4.17

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

AmericaFirst1

Over

Invested

$122.62

Value

$119.28

PnL

-$3.34

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.51

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$0.57

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$15.57

Value

$16.59

PnL

+$1.02

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$7.56

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.