Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texas A&M, while the market favors Tennessee (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Texas A&M (100%) · Texas A&M at 44¢ · $556 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Texas A&M
5
Texas A&M 100%
$555.56
$2.99
42.8¢ → 43.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas A&M at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tennessee 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Texas A&M. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Texas A&Mavg 43¢ | $223.6 | $223.6 | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Texas A&Mavg 42.4¢ | $197.5 | $200.44 | +$2.93 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 43¢ | $60.2 | $60.2 | -$0 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 42.9¢ | $40.72 | $40.78 | +$0.06 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Texas A&Mavg 43¢ | $30.55 | $30.55 | -$0 | 50% 262-258 (520) |
Invested
$223.6
Value
$223.6
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$197.5
Value
$200.44
PnL
+$2.93
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$60.2
Value
$60.2
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$40.72
Value
$40.78
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.55
Value
$30.55
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
262-258 (520)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.