Duke vs. Miami (FL): O/U 57.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$109.11

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares13,290

Combined PnL+$109.21

Over5 traders

Total Value$737.44

Total Shares1,695

Combined PnL-$0.09

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 56¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$100.91	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 56¢	$956.78	$965.32	+$8.54	4% 23-537 (560)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 57¢	$455.99	$451.99	-$4	25% 341-1019 (1360)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 44¢	$377.08	$372.8	-$4.28	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 56.8¢	$228.77	$227.69	-$1.08	54% 286-244 (530)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 43¢	$212.79	$215.26	+$2.47	36% 948-1669 (2617)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56¢	$369.5	$165.29	+$4.83	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 43¢	$133.95	$135.51	+$1.56	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$11.57	$11.7	+$0.13	37% 960-1662 (2622)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.18	+$0.02	37% 970-1635 (2605)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,650.91

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$100.91

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$956.78

Value

$965.32

PnL

+$8.54

Record

23-537 (560)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$455.99

Value

$451.99

PnL

-$4

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$377.08

Value

$372.8

PnL

-$4.28

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$228.77

Value

$227.69

PnL

-$1.08

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$212.79

Value

$215.26

PnL

+$2.47

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$369.5

Value

$165.29

PnL

+$4.83

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$133.95

Value

$135.51

PnL

+$1.56

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.57

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.13

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.