Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (80%) · Grizzlies at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
5
Grizzlies 80%
$2.4K
$31.98
49.9¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$18.42 | 56% 3686-2847 (6533) |
HI hi774c | Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $409.17 | $421.45 | +$12.28 | 23% 179-616 (795) |
 VeryLucky888 | Grizzliesavg 49.5¢ | $495 | $208.11 | +$12.94 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Netsavg 93¢ | $24.18 | $12.61 | -$11.57 | 52% 567-532 (1099) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Grizzliesavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.58 | -$0.08 | 41% 687-1004 (1691) |
Invested
$1,734.91
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.42
Record
56%
3686-2847 (6533)
Invested
$409.17
Value
$421.45
PnL
+$12.28
Record
23%
179-616 (795)
VeryLucky888Invested
$495
Value
$208.11
PnL
+$12.94
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$24.18
Value
$12.61
PnL
-$11.57
Record
52%
567-532 (1099)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.08
Record
41%
687-1004 (1691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.