Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

UAB vs. Temple: O/U 47.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

-$182.49

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 49.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares33,505

Combined PnL-$293.02

Under6 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares32,911

Combined PnL+$110.53

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 51.2¢	$15.0K	$14.7K	-$215.66	51% 568-535 (1103)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Underavg 49¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	-$0	3% 12-393 (405)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$60	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$79.76	6% 30-460 (490)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$12.05	44% 44-57 (101)
0xheavy888	Underavg 47¢	$910.07	$948.8	+$38.73	54% 503-421 (924)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 48¢	$573.12	$585.06	+$11.94	49% 635-674 (1309)
LI Limousin	Underavg 48¢	$381.28	$393.2	+$11.92	36% 950-1657 (2607)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50¢	$171.5	$174.92	+$3.43	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR	Overavg 51¢	$140.64	$139.26	-$1.38	5% 21-436 (457)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$75.02	$74.42	-$0.59	48% 293-321 (614)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$46.94	$46.07	-$0.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$28.08	$28.35	+$0.27
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$16.62	$16.95	+$0.33	37% 968-1674 (2642)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1	$1.02	+$0.02	22% 179-619 (798)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$14,953.07

Value

$14.7K

PnL

-$215.66

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

BoggsFromShawshank

Under

Invested

$10,872.8

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

12-393 (405)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$60

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$1,932.1

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$79.76

Record

30-460 (490)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$1,340.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$12.05

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$910.07

Value

$948.8

PnL

+$38.73

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$573.12

Value

$585.06

PnL

+$11.94

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$381.28

Value

$393.2

PnL

+$11.92

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$174.92

PnL

+$3.43

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR

Over

Invested

$140.64

Value

$139.26

PnL

-$1.38

Record

21-436 (457)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$75.02

Value

$74.42

PnL

-$0.59

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Both legs:

Under$46.9448.4¢-$0.86

Over$28.0852¢+$0.27

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.62

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$0.33

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.