Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 73.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 52¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 15

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.2K

Combined PnL

$19.79

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares42,482

Combined PnL+$221.71

Over6 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares41,118

Combined PnL-$201.92

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Underavg 51¢	$21.6K	$21.8K	+$211.88	50% 118-116 (234)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$138.81	50% 2522-2477 (4999)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$46.69	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$991.33	$981.21	-$10.12	37% 968-1632 (2600)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 49¢	$836.92	$828.38	-$8.54	45% 260-317 (577)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$346.5	$350	+$3.5	37% 353-603 (956)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$178.5	+$3.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$171.5	+$0
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48¢	$151.51	$107.11	+$2.6	48% 3212-3512 (6724)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 50¢	$44.5	$45.39	+$0.89	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$35.77	$35.41	-$0.37	48% 2070-2232 (4302)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$339.87	$9.14	+$8.94	53% 1348-1174 (2522)

justwins

Under

Invested

$21,611.31

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$211.88

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$13,603.13

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$138.81

Record

50%

2522-2477 (4999)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,576

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$46.69

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$991.33

Value

$981.21

PnL

-$10.12

Record

37%

968-1632 (2600)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$836.92

Value

$828.38

PnL

-$8.54

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$346.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$3.5

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Both legs:

Invested

$151.51

Value

$107.11

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

3212-3512 (6724)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$44.5

Value

$45.39

PnL

+$0.89

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.77

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$0.37

Record

48%

2070-2232 (4302)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$339.87

Value

$9.14

PnL

+$8.94

Record

53%

1348-1174 (2522)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.