Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: O/U 53.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$159.11

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 51.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,186

Combined PnL-$156.13

Over5 traders

Total Value$911.44

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$2.98

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.9¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$146.42	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 54¢	$1,000	$990.74	-$9.26	4% 23-537 (560)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 49¢	$605.15	$598.98	-$6.17	59% 931-653 (1584)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$339.5	$350	+$10.5	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$161	$169.75	+$8.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$339.5	$350	+$10.5	37% 353-603 (956)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$178.5	$180.25	+$1.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$161	$169.75	+$8.75
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46¢	$154.96	$156.77	+$1.81	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 51¢	$137.88	$139.23	+$1.35	49% 635-674 (1309)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$106.82	$107.91	+$1.09	47% 895-992 (1887)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 53.7¢	$102.66	$88.73	-$1.97	54% 286-244 (530)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$26.32	$27.16	+$0.84	37% 966-1631 (2597)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$21.17	$20.63	-$0.54	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 51¢	$17.85	$18.03	+$0.18	48% 286-304 (590)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,876.33

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$146.42

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.74

PnL

-$9.26

Record

23-537 (560)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$605.15

Value

$598.98

PnL

-$6.17

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$339.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$10.5

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Invested

$339.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$10.5

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.96

Value

$156.77

PnL

+$1.81

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$137.88

Value

$139.23

PnL

+$1.35

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$106.82

Value

$107.91

PnL

+$1.09

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$102.66

Value

$88.73

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.32

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$0.84

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.17

Value

$20.63

PnL

-$0.54

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$17.85

Value

$18.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.