Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$92.21

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 53.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,838

Combined PnL+$377.76

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares11,358

Combined PnL-$285.55

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$360.03	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50¢	$6.1K	$5.3K	-$309.58	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99	Overavg 52.1¢	$670.04	$687.57	+$17.53	51% 568-535 (1103)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49¢	$514.2	$525.21	+$11.01	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$363.75	$250	+$12.22	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 50¢	$123	$123	+$0	37% 985-1642 (2627)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$42.48	$43.35	+$0.87	37% 364-613 (977)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$21.66	$21.66	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 51¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	54% 503-421 (924)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.8	+$0	49% 635-674 (1309)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.98	$3.04	+$0.06	50% 73-72 (145)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$7.3	$2.38	-$0.12	41% 700-1011 (1711)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$5,143.34

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$360.03

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,133.21

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$309.58

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$670.04

Value

$687.57

PnL

+$17.53

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$514.2

Value

$525.21

PnL

+$11.01

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$363.75

Value

$250

PnL

+$12.22

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$123

Value

$123

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.48

Value

$43.35

PnL

+$0.87

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.66

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.98

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

73-72 (145)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.3

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.12

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.