Brown Bears vs. Siena Saints

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Siena Saints (63%) · Siena Saints at 84¢ · $879 held · ends Nov 15

Brown Bears17¢Siena Saints83¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Siena Saints

Consensus Traders

Siena Saints 63%

Total Value

$879.4

Combined PnL

$8.15

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 83.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSiena Saints at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Siena Saints

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Brown Bears17%

Siena Saints84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Siena Saints5 traders

Total Value$572.82

Total Shares681

Combined PnL+$18.56

Brown Bears3 traders

Total Value$306.58

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL-$10.42

Siena Saints — 63%Brown Bears — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Siena Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrown Bears 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Siena Saints 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Siena Saintsavg 81.1¢	$508.06	$526.46	+$18.39	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99CTR	Brown Bearsavg 16¢	$209.28	$215.82	+$6.54	51% 568-535 (1103)
HI hi774cCTR	Brown Bearsavg 19¢	$106.65	$89.81	-$16.84	22% 179-619 (798)
0xheavy888<$100	Siena Saintsavg 84¢	$26.25	$26.25	+$0	54% 503-421 (924)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Siena Saintsavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.35	-$0.05	54% 286-244 (530)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Siena Saintsavg 81¢	$7.29	$7.56	+$0.27	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Siena Saintsavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.2	-$0.05	41% 700-1011 (1711)
poshposhCTR<$100	Brown Bearsavg 18¢	$1.06	$0.95	-$0.12	48% 1134-1214 (2348)

HomeRunHazard

Siena Saints

Invested

$508.06

Value

$526.46

PnL

+$18.39

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99CTR

Brown Bears

Invested

$209.28

Value

$215.82

PnL

+$6.54

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

hi774cCTR

Brown Bears

Invested

$106.65

Value

$89.81

PnL

-$16.84

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

0xheavy888<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$26.25

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ferdinand2<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

ameisgoat11<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

poshposhCTR<$100

Brown Bears

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

Research grade

AvoidSiena Saints at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Siena Saints

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Siena Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrown Bears 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Siena Saints 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Siena Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.