Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio State, while the market favors Northwestern (51%). 5 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (29%) · Ohio State at 50¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 14

Ohio State50¢Northwestern50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$87.3K

Combined PnL

$728.77

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Northwestern 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State50%

Northwestern51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State5 traders

Total Value$44.8K

Total Shares91,451

Combined PnL+$813.95

Northwestern12 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares81,968

Combined PnL-$85.18

Ohio State — 29%Northwestern — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-TempCTR	Ohio Stateavg 47.6¢	$21.6K	$22.0K	+$389.58	3% 4-156 (160)
JU justwinsCTR	Ohio Stateavg 48.1¢	$16.1K	$16.6K	+$481.32	50% 118-116 (234)
HO HomeRunHazard	Northwesternavg 51.7¢	$16.3K	$15.9K	-$365.43	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Northwesternavg 52¢	$11.4K	$11.3K	-$109.59	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Ohio Stateavg 50¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$60	1% 8-586 (594)
HI hi774c	Northwesternavg 52¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$196.66	22% 179-618 (797)
0xheavy888	Northwesternavg 52¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$130	54% 496-419 (915)
VeryLucky888	Northwesternavg 52.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$62.57	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Northwesternavg 51.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$14.96	44% 44-57 (101)
38 38791873984189	Northwesternavg 51.9¢	$907.38	$901.13	-$6.25	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Northwesternavg 52.5¢	$404.52	$415.87	+$11.35	48% 286-306 (592)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Northwesternavg 51¢	$408	$412	+$4	25% 341-1019 (1360)
MA manoamanoCTR	Ohio Stateavg 48¢	$292.68	$295.73	+$3.05	54% 29-25 (54)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Northwesternavg 52¢	$147.16	$148.58	+$1.42	54% 286-244 (530)
SE sentrio	Northwesternavg 52¢	$126.07	$130.92	+$4.85	42% 995-1363 (2358)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Northwesternavg 52¢	$47.65	$48.69	+$1.04	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
└ Northwestern leg	Northwesternavg 52¢	$26.95	$27.99	+$1.04
└ Ohio State leg	Ohio Stateavg 46¢	$20.7	$20.7	+$0
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Ohio Stateavg 46¢	$40.48	$40.48	+$0	47% 895-994 (1889)
GH ghorrock<$100	Northwesternavg 52¢	$9.88	$10.08	+$0.2	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

Kch-TempCTR

Ohio State

Invested

$21,574.29

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$389.58

Record

4-156 (160)

justwinsCTR

Ohio State

Invested

$16,085.02

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$481.32

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

HomeRunHazard

Northwestern

Invested

$16,307.59

Value

$15.9K

PnL

-$365.43

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Northwestern

Invested

$11,397.2

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$109.59

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Ohio State

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$60

Record

8-586 (594)

hi774c

Northwestern

Invested

$5,113.17

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$196.66

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

0xheavy888

Northwestern

Invested

$3,380

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$130

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

VeryLucky888

Northwestern

Invested

$2,143.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$62.57

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

0x0A77exmm

Northwestern

Invested

$2,186.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$14.96

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

38791873984189

Northwestern

Invested

$907.38

Value

$901.13

PnL

-$6.25

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Northwestern

Invested

$404.52

Value

$415.87

PnL

+$11.35

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Northwestern

Invested

$408

Value

$412

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

manoamanoCTR

Ohio State

Invested

$292.68

Value

$295.73

PnL

+$3.05

Record

54%

29-25 (54)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Northwestern

Invested

$147.16

Value

$148.58

PnL

+$1.42

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

sentrio

Northwestern

Invested

$126.07

Value

$130.92

PnL

+$4.85

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Pan9XARB<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$47.65

Value

$48.69

PnL

+$1.04

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Both legs:

Northwestern$26.9552¢+$1.04

Ohio State$20.746¢+$0

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$40.48

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

ghorrock<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

5 of 17 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Northwestern 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.