Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rice Owls, while the market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (83%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Rice Owls vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rice Owls (60%) · Rice Owls at 18¢ · $458 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Rice Owls
5
Rice Owls 60%
$458.15
$62.33
20.4¢ → 17.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRice Owls at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Rice Owlsavg 18¢ | $216 | $270 | +$54 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Rice Owlsavg 50¢ | $112 | $112 | -$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Rice Owlsavg 18¢ | $37.4 | $46.75 | +$9.35 | 36% 950-1657 (2607) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 82¢ | $18.38 | $17.64 | -$0.74 | 50% 1593-1619 (3212) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 85¢ | $12.04 | $11.76 | -$0.28 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$216
Value
$270
PnL
+$54
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$112
Value
$112
PnL
-$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
Invested
$37.4
Value
$46.75
PnL
+$9.35
Record
36%
950-1657 (2607)
Invested
$18.38
Value
$17.64
PnL
-$0.74
Record
50%
1593-1619 (3212)
Invested
$12.04
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$0.28
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.