Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 50¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares13,713

Combined PnL+$77.56

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares13,026

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwinsCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$73.17	50% 118-116 (234)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$5.93	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$17.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$23.68
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$22.37	46% 487-575 (1062)
HI hi774c	Overavg 50¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	$-1.2K	22% 179-618 (797)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.63	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$624.86	$631.11	+$6.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$441	$433.13	-$7.88
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$612.5	$618.63	+$6.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$441	$433.13	-$7.88
73 739633786	Overavg 50¢	$742.5	$749.93	+$7.42	11% 24-203 (227)
nehcnehc	Overavg 50¢	$721.93	$729.15	+$7.22	36% 54-95 (149)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50¢	$328.28	$331.56	+$3.28	42% 991-1360 (2351)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$179.58	$179.22	-$0.36	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$108	$106.92	-$1.08
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$71.59	$72.3	+$0.72
LI LightParadox	Overavg 48¢	$307.68	$160.25	-$147.43	37% 957-1658 (2615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$23.72	$23.72	+$0.01	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 50¢	$12.5	$6.25	-$6.25	50% 1586-1610 (3196)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.75	+$1.1	41% 689-1008 (1697)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49.9¢	$143.92	$0.98	+$0.38	53% 1343-1170 (2513)

justwinsCTR

Under

Invested

$6,505.55

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$73.17

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,764.93

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$5.93

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Under$3,396.9350.2¢+$17.75

Over$2,36850¢-$23.68

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$2,237.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$22.37

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$2,477

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,065.86

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.63

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Under$624.8650¢+$6.25

Over$44150.4¢-$7.88

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,053.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Both legs:

Invested

$742.5

Value

$749.93

PnL

+$7.42

Record

11%

24-203 (227)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$721.93

Value

$729.15

PnL

+$7.22

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$328.28

Value

$331.56

PnL

+$3.28

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$179.58

Value

$179.22

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Invested

$307.68

Value

$160.25

PnL

-$147.43

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.72

Value

$23.72

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$12.5

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

50%

1586-1610 (3196)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$1.1

Record

41%

689-1008 (1697)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$143.92

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.