Duke vs. Miami (FL)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (60%) · Miami (FL) at 84¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (FL)
5
Miami (FL) 60%
$157.96
-$65.01
82.4¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiami (FL) at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Miami (FL)avg 82.5¢ | $269.01 | $100.2 | -$65.81 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Miami (FL)avg 82¢ | $48.38 | $49.27 | +$0.89 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Miami (FL)avg 83¢ | $4.48 | $4.51 | +$0.03 | 66% 122-63 (185) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Dukeavg 17¢ | $3.91 | $3.8 | -$0.11 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Dukeavg 16¢ | $0.19 | $0.2 | +$0.01 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$269.01
Value
$100.2
PnL
-$65.81
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$48.38
Value
$49.27
PnL
+$0.89
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.51
PnL
+$0.03
Record
66%
122-63 (185)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.11
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.