Syracuse vs. NC State: O/U 55.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (82%) · Under at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 82%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$73.42

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,876

Combined PnL-$63.29

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,220

Combined PnL-$10.13

Under — 82%Over — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$45.06	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774c	Underavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20.8	22% 179-618 (797)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.82	51% 568-535 (1103)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52¢	$794.22	$801.85	+$7.64	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
NM NM-P	Underavg 55¢	$192.5	$192.5	-$0	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-P	Underavg 55¢	$192.5	$192.5	-$0	37% 353-603 (956)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56¢	$171.92	$168.85	-$3.07	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 53¢	$146.16	$144.84	-$1.32	48% 286-306 (592)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 55¢	$74.8	$74.12	-$0.68	54% 286-244 (530)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$20.7	$21.39	+$0.69	36% 948-1669 (2617)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Underavg 55¢	$18.91	$18.91	+$0	4% 23-537 (560)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,167.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$45.06

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$1,164.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20.8

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,043.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.82

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$794.22

Value

$801.85

PnL

+$7.64

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$192.5

Value

$192.5

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$192.5

Value

$192.5

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$171.92

Value

$168.85

PnL

-$3.07

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$146.16

Value

$144.84

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$74.8

Value

$74.12

PnL

-$0.68

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.7

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.69

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

pltrkr111<$100

Under

Invested

$18.91

Value

$18.91

PnL

+$0

Record

23-537 (560)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.