Spread: Yale (-3.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yale (36%) · Yale at 53¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 14

Yale53¢Princeton47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yale

Consensus Traders

Yale 36%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

-$105.77

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 53¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYale at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yale

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yale53%

Princeton47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yale4 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares25,908

Combined PnL-$494.91

Princeton7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares26,415

Combined PnL+$389.13

Yale — 36%Princeton — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yale. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePrinceton 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPrinceton 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Princeton 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986	Yaleavg 55¢	$12.6K	$12.2K	-$460	4% 3-67 (70)
nigiri99CTR	Princetonavg 45¢	$11.2K	$11.6K	+$373.92	52% 568-533 (1101)
JO jole24	Yaleavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$40	44% 24-31 (55)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yaleavg 55¢	$439.58	$443.58	+$4	25% 340-1018 (1358)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Princetonavg 46¢	$313.61	$320.43	+$6.82	47% 895-992 (1887)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Princetonavg 50¢	$881	$236.07	+$6.72	69% 131-59 (190)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Princetonavg 46.5¢	$121.6	$122.96	+$1.35	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yaleavg 52¢	$56.45	$57.54	+$1.09	46% 487-575 (1062)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Princetonavg 47¢	$24.44	$24.96	+$0.52	32% 99-207 (306)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Princetonavg 46.5¢	$10	$10.01	+$0.01	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Princetonavg 47.5¢	$9.58	$9.37	-$0.2	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

mde4life1986

Yale

Invested

$12,649.97

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$460

Record

3-67 (70)

nigiri99CTR

Princeton

Invested

$11,217.6

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$373.92

Record

52%

568-533 (1101)

jole24

Yale

Invested

$1,099.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$40

Record

44%

24-31 (55)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yale

Invested

$439.58

Value

$443.58

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

340-1018 (1358)

SnakeBallCTR

Princeton

Invested

$313.61

Value

$320.43

PnL

+$6.82

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Princeton

Invested

$881

Value

$236.07

PnL

+$6.72

Record

69%

131-59 (190)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Princeton

Invested

$121.6

Value

$122.96

PnL

+$1.35

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yale

Invested

$56.45

Value

$57.54

PnL

+$1.09

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

OddstormCTR<$100

Princeton

Invested

$24.44

Value

$24.96

PnL

+$0.52

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Princeton

Invested

$10

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Princeton

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.37

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralYale at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yale

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yale. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePrinceton 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPrinceton 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Princeton 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yale wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.