Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (38%) · Nets at 54¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 15

Grizzlies47¢Nets53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 38%

Total Value

$56.9K

Combined PnL

$133.87

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies47%

Nets54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies8 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares52,340

Combined PnL-$803.57

Nets5 traders

Total Value$32.6K

Total Shares60,920

Combined PnL+$937.44

Grizzlies — 62%Nets — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI VirIntrepidusCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$24.0K	$23.2K	-$750	— 3-2 (5)
nigiri99	Netsavg 52¢	$16.0K	$16.5K	+$461.39	51% 568-535 (1103)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Netsavg 52¢	$9.8K	$10.1K	+$291.69	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
SU SunlineTicker	Netsavg 52¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$122.64	70% 1724-751 (2475)
HO HomeRunHazard	Netsavg 52¢	$845.57	$869.96	+$24.39	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nehcnehc	Netsavg 50.8¢	$715.46	$752.79	+$37.33	36% 54-95 (149)
73 739633786CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$581.63	$551.96	-$29.67	11% 24-203 (227)
TX txwd9991CTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$289.5	$280.45	-$9.05	10% 9-83 (92)
38 38791873984189CTR	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$164.15	$155.78	-$8.38	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$47.61	$43.88	-$3.73	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 49.3¢	$42.67	$40.26	-$2.41	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$14.1	$13.95	-$0.15	54% 503-421 (924)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.33	-$0.17	41% 700-1011 (1711)

VirIntrepidusCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$24,000

Value

$23.2K

PnL

-$750

Record

—

3-2 (5)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$15,994.68

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$461.39

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nets

Invested

$9,847.66

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$291.69

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

SunlineTicker

Nets

Invested

$4,251.52

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$122.64

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

HomeRunHazard

Nets

Invested

$845.57

Value

$869.96

PnL

+$24.39

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nehcnehc

Nets

Invested

$715.46

Value

$752.79

PnL

+$37.33

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

739633786CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$581.63

Value

$551.96

PnL

-$29.67

Record

11%

24-203 (227)

txwd9991CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$289.5

Value

$280.45

PnL

-$9.05

Record

10%

9-83 (92)

38791873984189CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$164.15

Value

$155.78

PnL

-$8.38

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

suntoriCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$47.61

Value

$43.88

PnL

-$3.73

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$42.67

Value

$40.26

PnL

-$2.41

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$14.1

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.17

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGrizzlies 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.