Nuggets vs. Pelicans

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (57%) · Nuggets at 85¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 15

Nuggets85¢Pelicans15¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.7K

Combined PnL

$498.85

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 84.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets85%

Pelicans16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets4 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares33,436

Combined PnL+$524.89

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$182.05

Total Shares1,035

Combined PnL-$26.04

Nuggets — 57%Pelicans — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Nuggetsavg 82.4¢	$26.9K	$27.4K	+$508	65% 26-14 (40)
PU purplegatto	Nuggetsavg 83¢	$764.29	$624.48	+$7.82	68% 2628-1222 (3850)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 84¢	$306.53	$298.22	-$8.31	48% 852-928 (1780)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 84¢	$182.62	$182.62	-$0
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 17.2¢	$123.91	$115.6	-$8.31
GA Gaditima	Nuggetsavg 79¢	$142.08	$151.07	+$8.99	48% 246-262 (508)
OD OddstormCTR	Pelicansavg 20.5¢	$137.36	$110.17	-$27.19	32% 92-194 (286)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 17¢	$62.28	$58.61	-$3.66	50% 23-23 (46)
PA Pan9XCTR	Pelicansavg 17¢	$143.28	$13.26	+$4.81	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
GH ghorrock<$100	Nuggetsavg 84¢	$12.6	$12.67	+$0.07	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

bigbeliever

Nuggets

Invested

$26,893.31

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$508

Record

65%

26-14 (40)

purplegatto

Nuggets

Invested

$764.29

Value

$624.48

PnL

+$7.82

Record

68%

2628-1222 (3850)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$306.53

Value

$298.22

PnL

-$8.31

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

Both legs:

Nuggets$182.6284¢-$0

Pelicans$123.9117.2¢-$8.31

Gaditima

Nuggets

Invested

$142.08

Value

$151.07

PnL

+$8.99

Record

48%

246-262 (508)

OddstormCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$137.36

Value

$110.17

PnL

-$27.19

Record

32%

92-194 (286)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$62.28

Value

$58.61

PnL

-$3.66

Record

50%

23-23 (46)

Pan9XCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$143.28

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$4.81

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ghorrock<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNuggets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.