Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 53¢ · $880 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$879.9
$21.49
51¢ → 52.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $647.47 | $666.52 | +$19.04 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $132.44 | $131.06 | -$1.38 | 68% 2645-1233 (3878) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $34.08 | $33.73 | -$0.35 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $26.25 | +$0.75 | 54% 503-421 (924) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 51¢ | $293.19 | $10.28 | +$3.09 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $9.18 | $9.45 | +$0.27 | 48% 293-321 (614) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.63 | +$0.08 | 41% 700-1011 (1711) |
Invested
$647.47
Value
$666.52
PnL
+$19.04
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$132.44
Value
$131.06
PnL
-$1.38
Record
68%
2645-1233 (3878)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$34.08
Value
$33.73
PnL
-$0.35
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$25.5
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$0.75
Record
54%
503-421 (924)
Invested
$293.19
Value
$10.28
PnL
+$3.09
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$0.27
Record
48%
293-321 (614)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$0.08
Record
41%
700-1011 (1711)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.