Washington vs. Michigan State

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Washington (40%) · Washington at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Washington56¢Michigan State44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington

Consensus Traders

Washington 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$29.53

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington56%

Michigan State44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,891

Combined PnL-$37.82

Michigan State6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,415

Combined PnL+$8.29

Washington — 40%Michigan State — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpWashington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan State 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Washingtonavg 56¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$26.39	59% 1135-781 (1916)
VeryLucky888CTR	Michigan Stateavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$29.97	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
CR Crazyboy77	Washingtonavg 60¢	$900	$840	-$60	13% 15-103 (118)
nigiri99CTR	Michigan Stateavg 40¢	$554.4	$595.98	+$41.58	51% 568-535 (1103)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Michigan Stateavg 43.8¢	$415.22	$415.47	+$0.25	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Michigan State leg	Michigan Stateavg 43.8¢	$270.83	$265.83	-$5
└ Washington leg	Washingtonavg 55¢	$144.39	$149.64	+$5.25
GC GC-PCTR	Michigan Stateavg 44¢	$220	$215	-$5	37% 353-603 (956)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Michigan Stateavg 44¢	$155.5	$151.97	-$3.53	47% 895-994 (1889)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 40¢	$47.01	$50.54	+$3.53	49% 635-674 (1309)
38 38791873984189<$100	Washingtonavg 59¢	$42.47	$40.31	-$2.16	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Michigan Stateavg 40¢	$22.45	$24.13	+$1.68	36% 933-1644 (2577)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Washingtonavg 61¢	$25	$22.95	-$2.05	35% 264-485 (749)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Washington

Invested

$2,955.81

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$26.39

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

VeryLucky888CTR

Michigan State

Invested

$1,323.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$29.97

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Crazyboy77

Washington

Invested

$900

Value

$840

PnL

-$60

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

nigiri99CTR

Michigan State

Invested

$554.4

Value

$595.98

PnL

+$41.58

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

NM-PARB<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$415.22

Value

$415.47

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Michigan State$270.8343.8¢-$5

Washington$144.3955¢+$5.25

GC-PCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$220

Value

$215

PnL

-$5

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

SnakeBallCTR

Michigan State

Invested

$155.5

Value

$151.97

PnL

-$3.53

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$47.01

Value

$50.54

PnL

+$3.53

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

38791873984189<$100

Washington

Invested

$42.47

Value

$40.31

PnL

-$2.16

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

LimousinCTR<$100

Michigan State

Invested

$22.45

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$1.68

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Washington

Invested

$25

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$2.05

Record

35%

264-485 (749)

Research grade

NeutralWashington at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Washington

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMichigan State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpWashington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMichigan State 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMichigan State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michigan State 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.