Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Pistons (64%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pistons vs. Heat

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (91%) · Heat at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Pistons64¢Heat36¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 91%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$56.8

Smart Money Entry

34.5¢ → 36¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 64%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons64%

Heat36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,731

Combined PnL+$56.7

Pistons1 trader

Total Value$442.34

Total Shares691

Combined PnL+$0.1

Heat — 91%Pistons — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Heatavg 34¢	$707.09	$749.69	+$42.6	49% 257-270 (527)
fyrsken	Pistonsavg 64¢	$442.24	$442.34	+$0.1	51% 53-50 (103)
FO forecastication4CTR	Heatavg 35¢	$297.15	$305.64	+$8.49	33% 156-321 (477)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Heatavg 35¢	$70	$72	+$2	37% 909-1532 (2441)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Heatavg 34.7¢	$70.43	$58.02	+$2.8	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$46.08	$46.08	+$0	52% 523-489 (1012)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$40.68	$40.68	+$0	68% 2637-1226 (3863)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Heatavg 36¢	$36	$36	+$0	33% 147-294 (441)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Heatavg 35¢	$24.38	$25.64	+$1.26	32% 95-201 (296)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Heatavg 35¢	$13.7	$14.09	+$0.39	43% 949-1283 (2232)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Heatavg 41¢	$6.97	$6.12	-$0.85	50% 3738-3712 (7450)

GaditimaCTR

Heat

Invested

$707.09

Value

$749.69

PnL

+$42.6

Record

49%

257-270 (527)

fyrsken

Pistons

Invested

$442.24

Value

$442.34

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

53-50 (103)

forecastication4CTR

Heat

Invested

$297.15

Value

$305.64

PnL

+$8.49

Record

33%

156-321 (477)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$70

Value

$72

PnL

+$2

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$70.43

Value

$58.02

PnL

+$2.8

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$46.08

Value

$46.08

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

523-489 (1012)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$40.68

Value

$40.68

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

2637-1226 (3863)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$36

Value

$36

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

147-294 (441)

OddstormCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$24.38

Value

$25.64

PnL

+$1.26

Record

32%

95-201 (296)

sentrioCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13.7

Value

$14.09

PnL

+$0.39

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 64%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHeat 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.