Spread: Ohio State (-13.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio State (25%) · Ohio State at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Ohio State54¢Northwestern46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio State

Consensus Traders

Ohio State 25%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$79.09

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio State54%

Northwestern47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio State2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,380

Combined PnL+$1.88

Northwestern6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares8,878

Combined PnL-$80.97

Ohio State — 25%Northwestern — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorthwestern 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNorthwestern 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorthwestern 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Northwestern 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Ohio Stateavg 53¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	44% 12-15 (27)
PR primmCTR	Northwesternavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$42.55	59% 899-622 (1521)
nigiri99CTR	Northwesternavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$38.41	51% 499-470 (969)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 47¢	$191.64	$187.56	-$4.08	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
VeryLucky888CTR	Northwesternavg 46¢	$124.34	$85.19	+$5.96	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Northwesternavg 47¢	$75.03	$73.43	-$1.6	47% 72-82 (154)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ohio Stateavg 46¢	$12.36	$14.25	+$1.88	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 47¢	$13.58	$13.29	-$0.29	45% 445-541 (986)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Ohio State

Invested

$4,957.36

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

primmCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,999.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$42.55

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

nigiri99CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,805.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$38.41

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$191.64

Value

$187.56

PnL

-$4.08

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

VeryLucky888CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$124.34

Value

$85.19

PnL

+$5.96

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$75.03

Value

$73.43

PnL

-$1.6

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

ghorrock<$100

Ohio State

Invested

$12.36

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$1.88

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$13.58

Value

$13.29

PnL

-$0.29

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

Research grade

NeutralOhio State at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ohio State

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ohio State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorthwestern 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNorthwestern 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorthwestern 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Northwestern 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.