Portland State Vikings vs. San Francisco Dons
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold San Francisco Dons (60%) · San Francisco Dons at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
San Francisco Dons
5
San Francisco Dons 60%
$5.5K
$20.62
80.2¢ → 80.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | San Francisco Donsavg 80¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$20.88 | 22% 179-619 (798) |
HO HomeRunHazard | San Francisco Donsavg 81¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$12.53 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 nigiri99CTR | Portland State Vikingsavg 19.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$15 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Portland State Vikingsavg 16¢ | $9.44 | $11.8 | +$2.36 | 45% 261-317 (578) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | San Francisco Donsavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4 | -$0.15 | 41% 700-1011 (1711) |
Invested
$3,340
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$20.88
Record
22%
179-619 (798)
Invested
$1,040.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.53
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,061.95
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$15
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$2.36
Record
45%
261-317 (578)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
41%
700-1011 (1711)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.