Spread: Alabama (-14.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vanderbilt (38%) · Vanderbilt at 53¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 14

Alabama48¢Vanderbilt52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vanderbilt

Consensus Traders

Vanderbilt 38%

Total Value

$53.2K

Combined PnL

-$1.56

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVanderbilt at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alabama48%

Vanderbilt53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt3 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares53,644

Combined PnL-$204.84

Alabama5 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares52,482

Combined PnL+$203.28

Vanderbilt — 38%Alabama — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Vanderbiltavg 53¢	$27.2K	$26.9K	-$256.44	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
JU justwinsCTR	Alabamaavg 47¢	$23.4K	$23.6K	+$248.9	50% 118-116 (234)
VE Venusian	Vanderbiltavg 50¢	$995.5	$1.0K	+$49.78	36% 945-1666 (2611)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alabamaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$49.17	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Vanderbiltavg 52¢	$189.79	$191.62	+$1.82	48% 286-304 (590)
GC GC-PCTR	Alabamaavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-PCTR	Alabamaavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 47¢	$4.74	$4.79	+$0.05	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Vanderbilt

Invested

$27,182.91

Value

$26.9K

PnL

-$256.44

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

justwinsCTR

Alabama

Invested

$23,396.82

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$248.9

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

Venusian

Vanderbilt

Invested

$995.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$49.78

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

38791873984189CTR

Alabama

Invested

$1,058.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$49.17

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Vanderbilt

Invested

$189.79

Value

$191.62

PnL

+$1.82

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

GC-PCTR

Alabama

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-PCTR

Alabama

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralVanderbilt at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vanderbilt

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vanderbilt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.