Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 55.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 50¢ · $936 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$936.11
-$63.14
66.5¢ → 50.1¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 42.5¢ | $360.6 | $381.64 | +$21.03 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 58¢ | $237.8 | $231.65 | -$6.15 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 75¢ | $306.44 | $224.72 | -$81.72 | 55% 1630-1336 (2966) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $79.55 | $83.25 | +$3.7 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $14.85 | $14.85 | +$0 | 54% 286-244 (530) |
Invested
$360.6
Value
$381.64
PnL
+$21.03
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99Invested
$237.8
Value
$231.65
PnL
-$6.15
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$306.44
Value
$224.72
PnL
-$81.72
Record
55%
1630-1336 (2966)
Invested
$79.55
Value
$83.25
PnL
+$3.7
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
286-244 (530)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.