Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arkansas, while the market favors South Carolina (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: South Carolina (-7.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas (57%) · Arkansas at 50¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15

South Carolina51¢Arkansas49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arkansas

Consensus Traders

Arkansas 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$55.1

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 49.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArkansas at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors South Carolina 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Carolina51%

Arkansas50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arkansas4 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares24,415

Combined PnL-$598.44

South Carolina3 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares16,933

Combined PnL+$543.34

Arkansas — 57%South Carolina — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1CTR	Arkansasavg 53¢	$12.7K	$12.1K	-$600.58	51% 343-333 (676)
HO HomeRunHazard	South Carolinaavg 47.4¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$398.93	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
IC ic4cream	South Carolinaavg 47¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$137.13	4% 21-453 (474)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Arkansasavg 51¢	$687.24	$638.92	+$4.7	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 51¢	$418.21	$414.5	-$3.19
└ South Carolina leg	South Carolinaavg 48¢	$217.57	$224.42	+$7.89
GC GC-PCTR	Arkansasavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75	30% 193-457 (650)
FE ferdinand2	South Carolinaavg 47¢	$97.76	$105.04	+$7.28	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Arkansasavg 49¢	$4.33	$4.68	+$0.35	53% 1117-973 (2090)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Arkansasavg 50¢	$4.5	$4.55	+$0.04	59% 3584-2449 (6033)

bands1CTR

Arkansas

Invested

$12,744.5

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$600.58

Record

51%

343-333 (676)

HomeRunHazard

South Carolina

Invested

$6,068.49

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$398.93

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

ic4cream

South Carolina

Invested

$1,841.46

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$137.13

Record

21-453 (474)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$687.24

Value

$638.92

PnL

+$4.7

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Arkansas$418.2151¢-$3.19

South Carolina$217.5748¢+$7.89

GC-PCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$175

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

30%

193-457 (650)

ferdinand2

South Carolina

Invested

$97.76

Value

$105.04

PnL

+$7.28

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

NM-PCTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

3584-2449 (6033)

Research grade

NeutralArkansas at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arkansas

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors South Carolina 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arkansas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.