Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (33%) · Pistons at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Pistons
6
Pistons 33%
$2.2K
$87.81
51.6¢ → 51.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPistons at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pistonsavg 52¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$13.23 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Heatavg 48¢ | $240 | $300 | +$60 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Heatavg 48¢ | $164.16 | $205.2 | +$41.04 | 48% 3199-3501 (6700) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Pistonsavg 49¢ | $191.2 | $156.08 | -$35.12 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
SE sentrioCTR | Heatavg 48¢ | $105.91 | $132.39 | +$26.48 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Heatavg 48¢ | $34.56 | $43.2 | +$8.64 | 50% 1585-1605 (3190) |
Invested
$1,375.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$13.23
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$240
Value
$300
PnL
+$60
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$164.16
Value
$205.2
PnL
+$41.04
Record
48%
3199-3501 (6700)
Invested
$191.2
Value
$156.08
PnL
-$35.12
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$105.91
Value
$132.39
PnL
+$26.48
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$43.2
PnL
+$8.64
Record
50%
1585-1605 (3190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.