Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 49¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.68

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares21,518

Combined PnL+$139.27

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares23,618

Combined PnL-$153.95

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50.9¢	$10.8K	$10.9K	+$133.16	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$60.52	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nehcnehcCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$35.66	36% 54-95 (149)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$54.79	51% 568-535 (1103)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50¢	$132.82	$130	+$5.16	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$108.33	$107.22	-$1.11	37% 357-610 (967)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$42.81	$42.88	+$0.07	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$10.4	+$0.4	54% 498-419 (917)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 48¢	$7.51	$8.05	+$0.55	37% 972-1637 (2609)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	41% 698-1011 (1709)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$10,801.41

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$133.16

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,784.74

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$60.52

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nehcnehcCTR

Under

Invested

$4,730.88

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$35.66

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,827.95

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$54.79

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$169.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$132.82

Value

$130

PnL

+$5.16

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$108.33

Value

$107.22

PnL

-$1.11

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.81

Value

$42.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

498-419 (917)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$7.51

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.