Kansas vs. West Virginia

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold West Virginia (38%) · West Virginia at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 14

Kansas44¢West Virginia56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

West Virginia

Consensus Traders

West Virginia 38%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$23.03

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWest Virginia at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kansas44%

West Virginia56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares12,363

Combined PnL+$63.19

Kansas5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares11,683

Combined PnL-$40.17

West Virginia — 38%Kansas — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on West Virginia) and the top 1000 (6 on Kansas) disagree here.

ctrWest Virginia 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWest Virginia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kansas 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	West Virginiaavg 56¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$61.79	50% 118-116 (234)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Kansasavg 44¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$50	59% 1135-781 (1916)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Kansasavg 43¢	$592.02	$598.9	+$6.88	63% 25-15 (40)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kansasavg 42¢	$123.9	$126.85	+$2.95	47% 895-992 (1887)
GH ghorrock<$100	West Virginiaavg 57¢	$5.55	$2.91	+$0.1	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kansasavg 43¢	$2.87	$2.87	+$0	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Kansasavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	+$0	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
VeryLucky888<$100	West Virginiaavg 56¢	$27.63	$0.98	+$1.3	53% 1343-1170 (2513)

justwins

West Virginia

Invested

$6,920.42

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$61.79

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Kansas

Invested

$4,400

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Kansas

Invested

$592.02

Value

$598.9

PnL

+$6.88

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

SnakeBallCTR

Kansas

Invested

$123.9

Value

$126.85

PnL

+$2.95

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

ghorrock<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$5.55

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kansas

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Kansas

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

VeryLucky888<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$27.63

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$1.3

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

Research grade

NeutralWest Virginia at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on West Virginia) and the top 1000 (6 on Kansas) disagree here.

ctrWest Virginia 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWest Virginia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kansas 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Virginia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.