Nets vs. Grizzlies
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (83%) · Grizzlies at 59¢ · $427 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
6
Grizzlies 83%
1 arb excluded
$426.98
$4.3
61.4¢ → 58.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Grizzliesavg 63¢ | $179.75 | $172.24 | -$7.51 | 47% 394-451 (845) |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 63¢ | $145.08 | $134.72 | -$10.36 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 38.3¢ | $34.67 | $37.52 | +$2.85 | |
OD OddstormCTR | Netsavg 36.5¢ | $93.28 | $104.69 | +$11.41 | 25% 44-135 (179) |
SU suntori<$100 | Grizzliesavg 59¢ | $95.23 | $94.42 | -$0.81 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Grizzliesavg 68¢ | $41.76 | $29.67 | -$4.6 | 48% 145-156 (301) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Grizzliesavg 63¢ | $16.38 | $15.34 | -$1.04 | 47% 896-997 (1893) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Grizzliesavg 60¢ | $7.2 | $7.08 | -$0.12 | 50% 3423-3417 (6840) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Grizzliesavg 68¢ | $4.08 | $3.54 | -$0.54 | 58% 80-59 (139) |
Invested
$179.75
Value
$172.24
PnL
-$7.51
Record
47%
394-451 (845)
Both legs:
Invested
$93.28
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$11.41
Record
25%
44-135 (179)
Invested
$95.23
Value
$94.42
PnL
-$0.81
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$29.67
PnL
-$4.6
Record
48%
145-156 (301)
Invested
$16.38
Value
$15.34
PnL
-$1.04
Record
47%
896-997 (1893)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.08
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
3423-3417 (6840)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$3.54
PnL
-$0.54
Record
58%
80-59 (139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.