Stanford vs. Virginia Tech
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Tech (57%) · Virginia Tech at 88¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Virginia Tech
7
Virginia Tech 57%
$12.7K
-$24.55
86.8¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVirginia Tech at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Virginia Techavg 87¢ | $6.3K | $6.4K | +$36.29 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
 nigiri99 | Virginia Techavg 86.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$8.6 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
PU purplegatto | Virginia Techavg 86¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$23.09 | 68% 2645-1233 (3878) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Stanfordavg 13¢ | $900.59 | $865.95 | -$34.64 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Stanfordavg 13.6¢ | $721.33 | $664.85 | -$56.48 | 53% 1376-1196 (2572) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Virginia Techavg 87¢ | $68.46 | $68.86 | +$0.39 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Stanfordavg 13.9¢ | $18.43 | $16.63 | -$1.81 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
Invested
$6,314.87
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$36.29
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
nigiri99Invested
$2,749.3
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$8.6
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$1,985.74
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$23.09
Record
68%
2645-1233 (3878)
Invested
$900.59
Value
$865.95
PnL
-$34.64
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$721.33
Value
$664.85
PnL
-$56.48
Record
53%
1376-1196 (2572)
Invested
$68.46
Value
$68.86
PnL
+$0.39
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$18.43
Value
$16.63
PnL
-$1.81
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.