Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston: O/U 45.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 53¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$299.7

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares22,640

Combined PnL+$213.66

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares21,164

Combined PnL+$86.04

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 51.5¢	$9.8K	$10.0K	+$197	51% 568-535 (1103)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Overavg 49¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$51	3% 12-393 (405)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$32.76	22% 179-619 (798)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$35	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$32.74	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$629.12	$661.22	+$32.1	54% 503-421 (924)
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$311.99	$302.63	-$9.36	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$264.26	$256.33	-$7.93	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 49¢	$95.94	$94.96	-$0.98	37% 985-1642 (2627)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 51¢	$74.46	$76.65	+$2.19	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$23.5	$24.21	+$0.71	48% 293-321 (614)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$9,772.23

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$197

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Over

Invested

$4,998

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$51

Record

12-393 (405)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$3,197.61

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$32.76

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,450

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,099.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$32.74

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$629.12

Value

$661.22

PnL

+$32.1

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$311.99

Value

$302.63

PnL

-$9.36

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$264.26

Value

$256.33

PnL

-$7.93

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$95.94

Value

$94.96

PnL

-$0.98

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$74.46

Value

$76.65

PnL

+$2.19

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.5

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.