Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Pistons (56%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-2.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (45%) · Heat at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Pistons56¢Heat44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 45%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$24.33

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 44.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons56%

Heat45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat5 traders

Total Value$891.19

Total Shares1,862

Combined PnL+$112.75

Pistons6 traders

Total Value$449.52

Total Shares938

Combined PnL-$88.42

Heat — 45%Pistons — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Heatavg 40¢	$259.25	$349.98	+$90.74	70% 1724-751 (2475)
nigiri99CTR	Heatavg 42.5¢	$327.8	$343.54	+$15.74	51% 568-535 (1103)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 58¢	$215.42	$170.85	-$44.57	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 57¢	$201.78	$162.84	-$38.94	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Heatavg 43¢	$120.83	$125.05	+$4.22	37% 985-1642 (2627)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pistonsavg 56¢	$72.8	$73.45	+$0.65	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Heatavg 44¢	$66.44	$67.2	+$0.76	37% 968-1674 (2642)
0xheavy888<$100	Pistonsavg 57.5¢	$23	$22.6	-$0.4	54% 503-421 (924)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 58¢	$22.04	$17.48	-$4.56	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Heatavg 41¢	$4.12	$5.43	+$1.31	48% 912-1002 (1914)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pistonsavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.3	-$0.6	41% 700-1011 (1711)

SunlineTickerCTR

Heat

Invested

$259.25

Value

$349.98

PnL

+$90.74

Record

70%

1724-751 (2475)

nigiri99CTR

Heat

Invested

$327.8

Value

$343.54

PnL

+$15.74

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$215.42

Value

$170.85

PnL

-$44.57

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$201.78

Value

$162.84

PnL

-$38.94

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

MadridTimeCTR

Heat

Invested

$120.83

Value

$125.05

PnL

+$4.22

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

38791873984189<$100

Pistons

Invested

$72.8

Value

$73.45

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

VenusianCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$66.44

Value

$67.2

PnL

+$0.76

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

0xheavy888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$23

Value

$22.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$22.04

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$4.56

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$4.12

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.6

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.