UAB vs. Temple: O/U 45.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 60¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$951.71

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 59.5¢

+41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares16,767

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,779

Combined PnL-$419.26

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 41¢	$2.9K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	51% 568-535 (1103)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 59¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	-$172.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 43¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$43.25	48% 34-37 (71)
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 57¢	$913.71	$665.25	-$248.47	6% 30-460 (490)
VE Venusian	Underavg 41¢	$145	$206.89	+$61.89	37% 968-1674 (2642)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	-$0	69% 133-60 (193)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 59¢	$162.84	$164.22	+$1.38	54% 286-244 (530)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 42¢	$82.99	$98.8	+$15.81	48% 912-1002 (1914)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 42¢	$58.52	$59.22	+$0.7	36% 950-1657 (2607)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 40¢	$44.03	$47.89	+$3.85	55% 1630-1336 (2966)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,917.97

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,074.72

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$172.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$3,719.07

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$43.25

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$913.71

Value

$665.25

PnL

-$248.47

Record

30-460 (490)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$145

Value

$206.89

PnL

+$61.89

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$162.84

Value

$164.22

PnL

+$1.38

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$82.99

Value

$98.8

PnL

+$15.81

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$58.52

Value

$59.22

PnL

+$0.7

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$44.03

Value

$47.89

PnL

+$3.85

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.