Spread: Miami (FL) (-13.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (50%) · Miami (FL) at 54¢ · $102K held · ends Nov 14

Miami (FL)54¢Duke46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miami (FL)

Consensus Traders

Miami (FL) 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$102.0K

Combined PnL

-$407.25

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)54%

Duke47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (FL)5 traders

Total Value$52.9K

Total Shares100,831

Combined PnL-$503.11

Duke5 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares103,270

Combined PnL+$95.85

Miami (FL) — 50%Duke — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Miami (FL)avg 53¢	$53.0K	$52.5K	-$500	50% 118-116 (234)
GM gmpm2CTR	Dukeavg 47¢	$29.2K	$29.5K	+$310.7	55% 356-295 (651)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Dukeavg 47¢	$18.8K	$18.6K	-$200	1% 3-326 (329)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Dukeavg 46¢	$426.57	$437.69	+$11.12	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Duke leg	Dukeavg 46¢	$252.67	$255.42	+$2.75
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 51¢	$173.9	$182.27	+$8.37
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Miami (FL)avg 53¢	$424	$420	-$4	25% 340-1018 (1358)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Dukeavg 48.2¢	$319.78	$308.21	-$11.57	20% 15-59 (74)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Dukeavg 47¢	$131.6	$133	+$1.4	54% 286-244 (530)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Dukeavg 49¢	$91.63	$86.96	-$4.67	47% 895-992 (1887)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (FL)avg 51.3¢	$18.38	$13.44	+$0.4	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Miami (FL)avg 51¢	$6.49	$6.81	+$0.32	49% 635-674 (1309)
VeryLucky888<$100	Miami (FL)avg 50¢	$2.48	$2.65	+$0.17	53% 1343-1170 (2513)

justwins

Miami (FL)

Invested

$53,000

Value

$52.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

50%

118-116 (234)

gmpm2CTR

Duke

Invested

$29,205.76

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$310.7

Record

55%

356-295 (651)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Duke

Invested

$18,800

Value

$18.6K

PnL

-$200

Record

3-326 (329)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Duke

Invested

$426.57

Value

$437.69

PnL

+$11.12

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Duke$252.6746¢+$2.75

Miami (FL)$173.951¢+$8.37

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Miami (FL)

Invested

$424

Value

$420

PnL

-$4

Record

25%

340-1018 (1358)

lightotunnel35CTR

Duke

Invested

$319.78

Value

$308.21

PnL

-$11.57

Record

20%

15-59 (74)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Duke

Invested

$131.6

Value

$133

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Duke

Invested

$91.63

Value

$86.96

PnL

-$4.67

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$18.38

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

VeryLucky888<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (FL) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.