Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Pistons53¢Heat47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$100.8

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons53%

Heat48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat3 traders

Total Value$894.62

Total Shares1,860

Combined PnL+$38.15

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$639.31

Total Shares1,450

Combined PnL-$138.95

Heat — 50%Pistons — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Heatavg 46.1¢	$767.32	$790.47	+$23.15	51% 568-535 (1103)
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 53.5¢	$510.62	$381.6	-$129.02	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 54¢	$256.84	$249.71	-$7.13	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Heatavg 44¢	$39.8	$54.28	+$14.47	48% 912-1002 (1914)
nehcnehcCTR<$100	Heatavg 47¢	$49.35	$49.88	+$0.52	36% 54-95 (149)
0xheavy888<$100	Pistonsavg 54¢	$10.8	$8	-$2.8	54% 503-421 (924)

nigiri99CTR

Heat

Invested

$767.32

Value

$790.47

PnL

+$23.15

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$510.62

Value

$381.6

PnL

-$129.02

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$256.84

Value

$249.71

PnL

-$7.13

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$39.8

Value

$54.28

PnL

+$14.47

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

nehcnehcCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$49.35

Value

$49.88

PnL

+$0.52

Record

36%

54-95 (149)

0xheavy888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$10.8

Value

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.