South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 51.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$1.78
51.3¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $561 | $572 | +$11 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $494.05 | $484.05 | -$10 | 53% 1376-1196 (2572) |
PL pltrkr111 | Overavg 52¢ | $236.21 | $238.48 | +$2.27 | 4% 23-537 (560) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $100 | $104 | +$4 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $100 | $96 | -$4 | |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $143.04 | $141.55 | -$1.49 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.84 | $4.84 | -$0 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
Invested
$561
Value
$572
PnL
+$11
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$494.05
Value
$484.05
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
1376-1196 (2572)
Invested
$236.21
Value
$238.48
PnL
+$2.27
Record
4%
23-537 (560)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
Both legs:
nigiri99CTRInvested
$143.04
Value
$141.55
PnL
-$1.49
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.