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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Sakan1 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (516–456, n=972) | 54% (455–392, n=847) | no settled market | 58% (11–8, n=19) |
| Consensus PnL | $362K | $324K | — | $769K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #287 | PM monthly #947 | was PM monthly #70 |
| Sides with the consensus | 62% (118 of 189 open) | 55% (100 of 181 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 224 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 71% of 605 at avg 54¢, ROI +6% | — | 92% of 12 at avg 46¢, ROI +49% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 100% of 3) | 13% (won 40% of 81) | — | 8% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 31% (won 100% of 70) | 24% (won 62% of 144) | — | 58% (won 100% of 7) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 60% (won 100% of 135) | 43% (won 74% of 261) | — | 33% (won 100% of 4) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 100% of 16) | 20% (won 98% of 119) | — | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
49 on the same side, 42 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | nigiri99 | Sakan1 | Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks vs. Cavaliers opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Cavaliers $48K | Mavericks $48 | — | — |
| Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 43.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $524 | Under $45K | — | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $32K | Over $7.2K | — | — |
| Avalanche vs. Canadiens opposite sides · consensus Avalanche | Canadiens $14K | Avalanche $9.9K | — | — |
| Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Nuggets | Pelicans $18K | Nuggets $504 | — | — |
| Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $14K | Over $2.4K | — | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $13K | Mavericks $32 | — | — |
| Oregon State vs. Boise State opposite sides · consensus Boise State | Boise State $11K | Oregon State $999 | — | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 47.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.7K | Over $6.2K | — | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $4.0K | Heat $5.2K | — | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 57.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $5.7K | Under $2.9K | — | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Cavaliers $8.1K | Mavericks $78 | — | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Arkansas | South Carolina $3.8K | Arkansas $4.1K | — | — |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $7.4K | Over $316 | — | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $6.7K | Mavericks $63 | — | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $4.2K | Over $1.9K | — | — |
| Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) opposite sides · consensus Nuggets | Pelicans $5.4K | Nuggets $588 | — | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $4.4K | Under $1.1K | — | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech $1.0K | Stanford $4.3K | — | — |
| Colorado State vs. Washington State: O/U 63.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $1.5K | Under $3.8K | — | — |
| Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 73.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.6K | Over $1.6K | — | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | Stanford $3.9K | Virginia Tech $1.3K | — | — |
| Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $867 | Under $4.2K | — | — |
| Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 41.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $4.4K | Under $361 | — | — |
| Spread: Wyoming (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus UTEP | UTEP $1.8K | Wyoming $2.7K | — | — |
| North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 75.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.4K | Over $942 | — | — |
| Red Wings vs. Lightning opposite sides · consensus Lightning | Red Wings $2.3K | Lightning $1.9K | — | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus South Carolina | South Carolina $2.7K | Arkansas $1.0K | — | — |
| Panthers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $2.8K | Over $424 | — | — |
| Spread: Wyoming (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus UTEP | UTEP $1.9K | Wyoming $664 | — | — |
| Spread: New Mexico (-18.5) opposite sides · consensus New Mexico | New Mexico $1.8K | UNLV $695 | — | — |
| North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 39.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.2K | Over $265 | — | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $572 | Under $1.3K | — | — |
| Panthers vs. Blues opposite sides · consensus Panthers | Panthers $1.7K | Blues $20 | — | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-15.5) opposite sides · consensus Stanford | Virginia Tech $531 | Stanford $877 | — | — |
| Spread: New Mexico (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus New Mexico | New Mexico $850 | UNLV $227 | — | — |
| Texas vs. LSU opposite sides · consensus LSU | LSU $199 | Texas $653 | — | — |
| Oilers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $591 | Over $126 | — | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $199 | Heat $363 | — | — |
| Spread: Air Force (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus Air Force | Air Force $8 | San Jose State $552 | — | — |
| Montana Grizzlies vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks opposite sides · consensus Montana Grizzlies | North Dakota Fighting Hawks $219 | Montana Grizzlies $216 | — | — |
| Rockets vs. Wizards opposite sides · consensus Rockets | Wizards $22 | Rockets $78 | — | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $83K | Grizzlies $70K | — | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $25K | Grizzlies $33K | — | — |
| Bulls vs. Timberwolves same side · consensus Timberwolves | Bulls $9.1K | Bulls $31K | — | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) same side · consensus Nets | Nets $9.1K | Nets $10K | — | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) same side · consensus Heat | Heat $6.0K | Heat $11K | — | — |
| Texas vs. LSU: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $13K | Over $1.7K | — | — |
| Utah vs. Arizona same side · consensus Utah | Utah $231 | Utah $14K | — | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $12K | Over $1.5K | — | — |