Spread: New Mexico (-16.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (33%) · New Mexico at 55¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
New Mexico
6
New Mexico 33%
$12.8K
$376.93
53.8¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Mexico at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | New Mexicoavg 54¢ | $6.3K | $6.3K | +$58.2 | 50% 2522-2477 (4999) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | UNLVavg 46¢ | $4.3K | $4.6K | +$234.94 | 48% 34-37 (71) |
38 38791873984189CTR | UNLVavg 46¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$56.12 | 48% 3212-3512 (6724) |
HO HomeRunHazard | New Mexicoavg 52¢ | $659.03 | $691.34 | +$32.31 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | UNLVavg 47.4¢ | $87.51 | $89.53 | +$2.03 | 48% 286-304 (590) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | UNLVavg 55¢ | $52.38 | $45.71 | -$6.67 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
Invested
$6,285.18
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$58.2
Record
50%
2522-2477 (4999)
Invested
$4,322.91
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$234.94
Record
48%
34-37 (71)
Invested
$1,032.7
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$56.12
Record
48%
3212-3512 (6724)
Invested
$659.03
Value
$691.34
PnL
+$32.31
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$87.51
Value
$89.53
PnL
+$2.03
Record
48%
286-304 (590)
Invested
$52.38
Value
$45.71
PnL
-$6.67
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.