Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (18%) · Grizzlies at 55¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 15

Grizzlies55¢Nets45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 18%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$2.58

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies55%

Nets46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies2 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares20,020

Combined PnL-$300.1

Nets9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares19,325

Combined PnL+$302.67

Grizzlies — 18%Nets — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNets 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI VirIntrepidus	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$11.2K	$10.9K	-$300	— 3-2 (5)
nigiri99CTR	Netsavg 44¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$163.32	51% 568-535 (1103)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Netsavg 44¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$52.77	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Netsavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$43.64	37% 977-1669 (2646)
VE VenusianCTR	Netsavg 44.2¢	$311.66	$321	+$9.34	37% 968-1674 (2642)
LI LimousinCTR	Netsavg 44¢	$223.6	$231.22	+$7.62	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 42¢	$177.42	$192.2	+$14.78	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
38 38791873984189CTR	Netsavg 43¢	$183.88	$96.91	+$7.03	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Netsavg 43¢	$39.81	$42.12	+$2.31	48% 912-1002 (1914)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Netsavg 43¢	$31.82	$33.67	+$1.85	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0xheavy888<$100	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$11	$10.9	-$0.1	54% 503-421 (924)

VirIntrepidus

Grizzlies

Invested

$11,199.99

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$300

Record

—

3-2 (5)

nigiri99CTR

Nets

Invested

$4,790.72

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$163.32

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

MadridTimeCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,547.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$52.77

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LightParadoxCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,280.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$43.64

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

VenusianCTR

Nets

Invested

$311.66

Value

$321

PnL

+$9.34

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

LimousinCTR

Nets

Invested

$223.6

Value

$231.22

PnL

+$7.62

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nets

Invested

$177.42

Value

$192.2

PnL

+$14.78

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

38791873984189CTR

Nets

Invested

$183.88

Value

$96.91

PnL

+$7.03

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$39.81

Value

$42.12

PnL

+$2.31

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$31.82

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0xheavy888<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$11

Value

$10.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNets 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.