Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 49.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$295.69

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 47.5¢

-5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares14,030

Combined PnL+$189.01

Under12 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares15,468

Combined PnL-$484.7

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 51.4¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$127.47	52% 573-538 (1111)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$280.27	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$87.07	22% 179-619 (798)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$987.42	-$40.18	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
IC ic4cream	Overavg 49¢	$760.01	$813.6	+$53.59	6% 30-460 (490)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 47¢	$421.43	$416.94	-$4.48	40% 130-196 (326)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$432.25	$406.88	-$25.38	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$339.5	-$14	38% 395-632 (1027)
VE Venusian	Overavg 48¢	$264.26	$258.75	-$5.51	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 50¢	$241.95	$234.69	-$7.26	47% 969-1095 (2064)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$236.4	$223.2	-$13.2	47% 312-350 (662)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 48¢	$143.54	$157	+$13.46	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 54.6¢	$129.63	$100.01	-$11.68	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$66.38	$65.18	-$1.2	54% 286-244 (530)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4	$4.04	+$0.04	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.98	$2.95	-$0.03	33% 69-138 (207)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$5,978.68

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$127.47

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,809.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$280.27

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$2,085.52

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$87.07

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,027.6

Value

$987.42

PnL

-$40.18

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$760.01

Value

$813.6

PnL

+$53.59

Record

30-460 (490)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$421.43

Value

$416.94

PnL

-$4.48

Record

40%

130-196 (326)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$432.25

Value

$406.88

PnL

-$25.38

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$353.5

Value

$339.5

PnL

-$14

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$264.26

Value

$258.75

PnL

-$5.51

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$241.95

Value

$234.69

PnL

-$7.26

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$236.4

Value

$223.2

PnL

-$13.2

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$143.54

Value

$157

PnL

+$13.46

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$129.63

Value

$100.01

PnL

-$11.68

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$65.18

PnL

-$1.2

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.98

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

33%

69-138 (207)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.