Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 43.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.6K
$5.84
49.9¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 50.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$35.29 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 51¢ | $898.87 | $898.87 | +$0 | 50% 2532-2495 (5027) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 49¢ | $510.92 | $531.77 | +$20.85 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Overavg 49¢ | $496.86 | $517.14 | +$20.28 | 49% 635-674 (1309) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $171.5 | $171.5 | +$0 | 59% 3772-2596 (6368) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $162.47 | $162.47 | +$0 | 37% 364-613 (977) |
Invested
$1,350.08
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$35.29
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$898.87
Value
$898.87
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2532-2495 (5027)
Invested
$510.92
Value
$531.77
PnL
+$20.85
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$496.86
Value
$517.14
PnL
+$20.28
Record
49%
635-674 (1309)
Invested
$171.5
Value
$171.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3772-2596 (6368)
Invested
$162.47
Value
$162.47
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
364-613 (977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.