Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 73.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$139.02

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,231

Combined PnL+$156.03

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,739

Combined PnL-$17.01

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$150.65	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$7.41	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52¢	$1.9K	$786.79	-$8.72	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$168	$166.25	-$1.75
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$250	$265	+$15	36% 953-1669 (2622)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$235.83	$238.15	+$2.32	37% 357-610 (967)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$182	$183.75	+$1.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$53.83	$54.4	+$0.57
DA DanielsDixon	Underavg 52¢	$220.37	$222.49	+$2.12	21% 16-62 (78)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$186.93	$191.69	+$4.76	37% 972-1637 (2609)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$141.22	$141.22	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$45.71	$50.47	+$4.76
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 54¢	$163.08	$160.06	-$3.02	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$71.01	$68.54	-$2.47	48% 288-310 (598)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$49.52	$43.81	-$5.71	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$40.51	$39.09	-$1.42	53% 1366-1192 (2558)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,862.19

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$150.65

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$2,102.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$7.41

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,857.1

Value

$786.79

PnL

-$8.72

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

Both legs:

Invested

$250

Value

$265

PnL

+$15

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$235.83

Value

$238.15

PnL

+$2.32

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

Both legs:

Invested

$220.37

Value

$222.49

PnL

+$2.12

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$186.93

Value

$191.69

PnL

+$4.76

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

Both legs:

Over$141.2246¢+$0

Under$45.7148¢+$4.76

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$163.08

Value

$160.06

PnL

-$3.02

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.01

Value

$68.54

PnL

-$2.47

Record

48%

288-310 (598)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.52

Value

$43.81

PnL

-$5.71

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.51

Value

$39.09

PnL

-$1.42

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.